Impacts of deforestation-driven rainfall reductions on Amazonia forest stability

The stability of Amazonian vegetation is strongly influenced by land–atmosphere feedbacks. It has been hypothesized that deforestation-induced precipitation decline may lead to widespread forest decline across the entire basin. Using a moisture-tracking model, we quantify how deforestation across South America alters downwind rainfall and affects forest stability. We find widespread forest collapse will not result from deforestation-induced precipitation changes alone. However, we identify key hotspots of vulnerability, including forests in southwestern Amazonia which could transition to non-forest ecosystems in response to upwind deforestation (affecting 81% of the Rondônia state). Western Amazonia and the eastern Amazonia-Cerrado transition zone emerge as key conservation hotspots, where forest loss produces the strongest downwind impacts on vegetation stability. Conversely, restoration in northeast Amazonia could enhance regional rainfall and improve ecosystem stability. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of preserving Amazonia's continental-scale moisture connectivity to safeguard both local ecosystem and broader hydroclimatic stability.