Exploring the role of strategic place-based risk assessment as a framework to support system-based climate adaptation planning

Climate change adaptation requires more place-based evidence to understand the context of historic, present and future vulnerability and how this translates to local patterns of risk. This study illustrates a globally relevant framework focused on multiple and often interconnected climate risks in a major coastal lowland, the Fens region, UK. It offers a practical approach, moving beyond a sectoral assessment, to produce a strategic, place-based assessment of risk pertinent for regions facing multi-hazard multi-response challenges. The study draws on a harmonized suite of spatially explicit climate risk models and regional literature to provide accessible information on key regional risks at near-term (2030s–2050s) and long-term (2070s–2100) timescales for flooding, drought, water scarcity, heat, agriculture, biodiversity and sea-level rise (SLR). Including SLR as an additional growing existential risk continuing beyond 2100 identifies an issue that is not widely recognised and yet is fundamental to the Fens future. It indicates more radical approaches to adaptation will be necessary beyond 2100, which may influence decisions through the 21st Century. Fundamental to informing and supporting this shift in thinking is the provision of data and information that can help stakeholders to engage, understand and approach adaptation planning in different ways. The framework has potential to support risk assessments for other coastal lowlands around the UK and internationally, which face coupled climate hazards and risks alongside SLR, and where more radical approaches or changes to manage future risk will be required in the longer-term, alongside local and national socio-economic and environmental objectives.