Drivers of roe deer use in fragmented forest landscapes; implications for current and future management in the context of policy driven forest expansion

Forest expansion is a major current land use change across Europe. How this will affect the forest use of the most common European wild ungulate species, roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and associated forest ecosystem services and disservices is poorly understood. Using a forest-agricultural mosaic landscape in northeast Scotland, we selected forests across a size and connectivity gradient as a proxy of expansion. We predicted that roe deer forest use estimated using camera traps would be driven by: i) higher structural and functional forest connectivity at a landscape scale, ii) within-forest structural characteristics including higher shrub density, deciduous cover and lower canopy cover, and iii) lower human usage. In line with predictions, roe deer preferred more connected forests and smaller forests in areas of the landscape with higher forest edge density. Within forests, roe deer preferred forest edge, and usage increased with higher tree density and variation in tree diameter, supportive of a preference for structurally complex forests. Human usage of forests was associated with lower roe deer use. This study has implications for current and future forest management. Firstly, targeted monitoring of forest patches predicted to have high roe deer usage for impacts could inform priorities and approaches to deer management. Secondly, as forest configuration changes with expansion policies, this study provides insights into how deer usage may change. We highlight how this knowledge can be used in forest planning to optimise deer management to minimise disservices to forestry, biodiversity and human and livestock health.