Enhancing Environmental Forecasting in the Polar Regions: A Look Into the New WMO WWRP Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS) Project

The 5-year (2024 - 2028) World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS) project aims to accelerate research on environmental forecasting and services in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As climate change intensifies, rapid transformations in the polar regions have complex impacts on local and global socio-ecological systems, exacerbating existing challenges for residents and operators. PCAPS focuses on enhancing forecast actionability, impact, and fidelity through a multifaceted approach of user engagement, model and service improvements, and impact studies. Key outcomes will include support for improved predictions of small-scale processes, enhanced understanding of observing systems and of the utility of Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) applications, contributions toward the development of a tiered surface observing network, and strengthened cooperation between users, operational centres, and researchers.

PCAPS explores approaches to improve forecasts for sea ice, surface wind, visibility, and other key variables, which are essential for developing salient forecasting services that can enhance operational and environmental safety in extreme polar environments. Through collaborations between social and physical scientists, PCAPS also assesses decision-making, risk perceptions, and interactions between forecasters, service providers, and users, including Indigenous communities, and considers political, legal, and economic implications of information delivery. PCAPS is expected to inform WMO’s contribution to the fifth International Polar Year (2032-2033), support WMO Strategic Objectives, and build upon previous initiatives such as the Polar Prediction Project.