Can systems thinking help identify leverage points for scaling up organic food systems?

Meeting sustainability goals in global food systems, including animal husbandry, requires more than technical innovation. It demands a shift in focus toward the underlying structures that shape how food is produced, consumed, and governed. Drawing on Donella Meadows’ concept of leverage points, this essay applies a systems thinking approach to explore how deep leverage points can be targeted to scale up organic food systems, with an emphasis on animal husbandry. By developing a collective mental model (fuzzy cognitive map) based on expert stakeholder input, the study identifies key concepts influencing the uptake of organic practices, including short-term economic thinking, landowner engagement with organic farming, and relationships with certification bodies. These concepts, which are associated with system norms and values, exert the greatest influence on the system, yet are often overlooked in policy and research. Among livestock-specific concepts, understanding of the link between soil, plant, animal and human health emerged as the most influential concept, reflecting its role as a deep leverage point in grazing‑based systems. Animal welfare and pasture condition were more heavily influenced by changes elsewhere in the system, indicating the importance of underlying values and relationships that shape husbandry choices. Scenario analysis based on Shared Socio–economic Pathways revealed that systemic change was unexpectedly greater under a fossil fuel-driven future than under a sustainable one, because stakeholders anticipated shifts in more tangible concepts rather than deeper leverage points under a sustainable future. This supports the leverage points theory in that transformative change requires a shift in focus towards system norms, values, and mindsets. The findings highlight the need for organic animal husbandry to unify around systemic interventions that embed long-term thinking, values and worldviews. This perspective contributes to the global debate by offering a roadmap for meaningful transformation grounded in the principles of sustainability, One Health, and agroecological integration.