Sun, Siyi; Cotrufo, M. Francesca 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6191-8953; Viscarra Rossel, R.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1540-4748; Mueller, Carsten W.; Kida, Morimaru ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9908-2012; Hardie, Ailsa G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5514-6547; Mackay, Alec ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-3918; Krichels, Alexander H.; Amelung, Wulf; Kumar, Amit ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4590-1825; Suleymanov, Azamat; Shi, Baoku ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3954-9415; Cosby, Bernard Jackson ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5645-3373; Plaza, César ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8616-7001; Terrer, César ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5479-3486; Liang, Chang; Liao, Chang; Just, Christopher; Guo, Ding; Lugato, Emanuele ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8947-352X; Hou, Enqing ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4864-2347; Ding, Fan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7938-1015; Zhao, Fazhu ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4758-3277; Tao, Feng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6105-860X; Maestre, Fernando T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7434-4856; Bilotto, Franco; Wu, Fuzhong ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-5908; García, Gisela V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0628-7917; Luo, Gongwen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0564-7885; Han, Guangxuan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2651-8599; Studdert, Guillermo A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8611-4441; Hernandez-Ramirez, Guillermo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8225-5813; Niu, Guoxiang; Piñeiro, Gervasio; Saiz, Gustavo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7794-4403; Zhang, Haikuo; Abdelrahman, Hamada ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6069-7239; Xu, Haodi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3839-7202; Lebron, Inma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8610-9717; Kurganova, Irina; Blesh, Jennifer; Kristensen, Jeppe Å.; Liu, Ji ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2496-9521; Zhou, Jiacong; Wu, Jianping ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5784-834X; Ahirwal, Jitendra; Cao, Junji ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-7241; Olesen, Jørgen E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6639-1273; Kauer, Karin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9318-8094; Georgiou, Katerina ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2819-3292; van Groenigen, Kees Jan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9165-3925; Van Oost, Kristof ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4938-9438; Frimpong, Kwame Agyei; Deng, Lei ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5898-5100; Benning, Liane G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9972-5578; Guo, Liang; Mujuru, Lizzie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9398-7486; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6499-576X; Dor, Maoz; Rahmati, Mehdi; Luo, Min ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3284-629X; Kalinina, Olga; Hyvärinen, Olli; García-Palacios, Pablo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6367-4761; Hansen, Paige; Rounak, Patra ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5822-466X; Duan, Pengpeng; Zhao, Pengzhi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6675-7338; Homyak, Peter M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0671-8358; Ghimire, Rajan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6962-6066; Žydelis, Renaldas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2746-3713; Bol, Roland ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3015-7706; Vibart, Ronaldo; Chang, Ruiying; Luo, Ruyi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-1858; Villarino, Sebastián ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1850-447X; Xue, Shuai; Niu, Shuli ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2394-2864; Chen, Shuotong; Yu, Tengfei; Hall, Steven J.; Kätterer, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1751-007X; Ge, Tida ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0422-6122; Mbanjwa, Vusumuzi Erick ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1460-6578; Semenov, Vyacheslav M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2539-6107; Liu, Weixing; Shi, Weiyu; Zhang, Wei; Wanek, Wolfgang ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2178-8258; Buss, Wolfram; Cheng, Xiangrong; Lu, Xiankai ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7720-6048; Shi, Xiaojun ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5740-4098; Cheng, Xiaoli ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0346-675X; Wei, Xiaorong; Liu, Xiaotong ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9393-933X; Zhou, Xuhui ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2038-9901; Kooch, Yahya; Zhong, Yangquanwei; Cai, Yanjiang ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5376-7884; Yang, Yan; Luo, Yiqi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4556-0218; Zhang, Yixuan; Qin, Yunbin; Fang, Yunting ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7531-546X; Liang, Yuting ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5443-4486; Li, Yuyi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2433-4799; Chen, Zengming ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5017-4939; Liu, Zhanfeng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6602-6196; Song, Zhaoliang ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2219-5852; Luo, Zhongkui ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6744-6491; An, Zhisheng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9538-9826; Chen, Ji ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7026-6312.
2026
Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change.
Nature Communications.
10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2
Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0.
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