Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts

Chevuturi, Amulya ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221; Oltmanns, Marilena ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8959-4938; Tanguy, Maliko ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1516-6834; Harvey, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181; Svensson, Cecilia ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9294-5826; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310. 2025 Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 437. 11, pp. 10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1

Abstract/Summary

UK droughts are projected to become more frequent under climate change, reinforcing the need to understand their underlying causes. Our study examines oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts and the associated teleconnection pathways. Specifically, we evaluate statistical links between standardized precipitation and streamflow indices for the UK and two North Atlantic Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns which have previously been linked to the influx of freshwater into the subpolar region. Our findings reveal that the North Atlantic SST influences UK hydrology up to 1.5 years in advance by altering the position of the North Atlantic Current, which is coupled to the location of the North Atlantic summer jet stream. The long lead time of this teleconnection pathway can inform UK drought forecasting across seasonal to interannual timescales and ultimately contribute to the advancement of sustainable water resource management in the face of increasing drought risks in the UK.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water and Climate Science (2025-) UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	2662-4435
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	hydrology
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset Dataset Dataset Dataset
Date made live:	09 Jun 2025 13:43 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539542

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Water and Climate Science (2025-)
UKCEH Fellows

ISSN:

2662-4435

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

hydrology