Cosby, B.J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5645-3373; Thomas, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-7285; Emmett, B.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2713-4389; Anthony, S.; Bell, C.; Carnell, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0870-1955; Dickie, I.; Fitch, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6260-8957; Gooday, R.; Kettel, E.; Jones, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4379-9006; Matthews, R.; Petr, R.; Siriwardena, G.M.; Steadman, C.; Thomas, D.; Williams, B.; Vieno, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7741-9377.
2020
Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme – ERAMMP Year 1 Report 12: ‘Quick Start’ Modelling (Phase 1).
Bangor, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 71pp.
(UKCEH Project no. C06297, C210/2016/2017)
The potential impact of Brexit on the farming sector and wider environment is just one of the many challenges facing the Welsh Government. There are a range of decision and modelling tools which can be used to explore potential outcomes and the areas at risk where the environmental regulatory floor needs to be enhanced or social transition programmes put in place. The same tools can also be used to explore a range of ‘what if’ scenarios for different land management options which could be included in new Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes or in national land management payment schemes to replace CAP.
To meet this challenge in Wales, a partnership between the Welsh Government, their stakeholders and a consortium of research organisations led by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) was formed. This partnership, called ERAMMP, (https://erammp.wales/en) combined expert knowledge and a range of decision and modelling tools to examine potential changes in agricultural land use that might result from Brexit, and to explore potential benefits of new land management options.
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