PhiGO seasonal groundwater forecasting system

Mackay, Jonathan D.; Barkwith, Andrew; Guzman, Maria Aileen Leah G.. 2022 PhiGO seasonal groundwater forecasting system. Nottingham, UK, British Geological Survey, 21pp. (OR/21/066) (Unpublished)

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This report provides an overview of the seasonal (90-day) groundwater level forecasting system for the Philippines that was developed as part of the NERC-Newton fund Philippines Groundwater Outlook (PhiGO) project (NE/S003118/1). The system builds on other operational groundwater level forecasting systems developed at the BGS, such as the UK Hydrological Outlook (Prudhomme et al., 2017). Forecasts are made at the borehole scale across a network of observation boreholes using the BGS AquiMod groundwater model (Mackay et al., 2014a) driven by numerical weather prediction forecasts. However, this system has been customised with the Philippine case study in mind. More specifically, it has been developed to work alongside a telemetered network of boreholes operated by Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU) and owned by the National Water Resources Board (NWRB) under the Groundwater Management Plan (GMP) project. Groundwater level data have only been collected since 2019 and the network is continually expanding. Accordingly, a number of additional features have been included, such as automated recalibration of the AquiMod models as more observation data become available; and the ability to automatically generate new AquiMod groundwater models as the telemetered network expands. Climate observation data are also relatively sparse and, therefore, the system makes use of freely-available global gridded datasets. This report outlines the scientific background and methodology of the forecasting system. It also summarises the principal outputs, which are published online via a free-to-view web-delivery platform ( The report begins with an overview of the process-based BGS AquiMod groundwater model which underpins the groundwater level forecasts as well as the model calibration and evaluation approach used in the forecasting system. Section 3 provides more details of the input data used to drive the forecasts before Section 4 gives an overview of the underlying processes in the forecasting system. Finally, a description of the main system outputs is given in Section 5.

Item Type: Publication - Report
Funders/Sponsors: British Geological Survey
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: This item has been internally reviewed, but not externally peer-reviewed.
Additional Keywords: GroundwaterBGS, Groundwater
Date made live: 24 May 2022 13:06 +0 (UTC)

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