Projected changes in the East Asian hydrological cycle for different levels of future global warming

Chevuturi, Amulya ORCID:; Klingaman, Nicholas P. ORCID:; Turner, Andrew G. ORCID:; Guo, Liang ORCID:; Vidale, Pier Luigi ORCID: 2022 Projected changes in the East Asian hydrological cycle for different levels of future global warming [in special issue: Understanding and simulating air–sea interactions under extreme weather and climate conditions] Atmosphere, 13 (3), 405. 24, pp.

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Recent decades have shown significant changes to the hydrological cycle over East Asia (EA), and further changes are expected due to future global warming. This study evaluates projected seasonal changes in the EA hydrological cycle using simulations that are 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) Global Ocean Mixed Layer model version 2.0 (GOML2.0), compared against present-day conditions. The moisture sources of the warming-induced precipitation changes are identified over five hydrologically unique regions within EA. Precipitation over EA increases with warming (except over southeastern EA in the spring and autumn) due to the intensified hydrological cycle. The projected seasonal changes in the hydrological cycle are usually nonlinear, with the rate of change between 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C larger than the rate of change between 2.0 ∘C and 3.0 ∘C of warming. The warming-induced precipitation increases are mainly associated with an increase in remote moisture convergence rather than local moisture recycling, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Decomposition of the changes in moisture sources by direction and flux component indicate that changes from the west are dominated by changes to moisture and changes from the north are more circulation driven. The changes from the south are moisture driven over southern EA and driven by moisture and circulation change over northern EA. Our results highlight the regionally and seasonally diverse projected changes to the EA hydrological cycle due to global warming, which will be useful for region-specific climate mitigation policies and the implementation of seasonally varying adaptation methods.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN: 2073-4433
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: East Asia, global warming, East Asian monsoon, moisture convergence, GOML2.0
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live: 02 Mar 2022 17:16 +0 (UTC)

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