How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?

High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with satellite chlorophyll estimates. By setting thresholds to define bloom events we use a binary classification system to generate maps showing the probability a model bloom prediction is correct. Model and satellite data limitations are discussed along with the application of this method to forecasting specific harmful algal species.