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Decision-making heuristics for managing climate-related risks: introducing equity to the FREE framework

Audia, Camilla; Visman, Emma; Fox, Gino; Mwangi, Emmah; Kilavi, Mary; Arango, Mark; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Kniveton, Dominic. 2021 Decision-making heuristics for managing climate-related risks: introducing equity to the FREE framework. In: Conway, Declan; Vincent, Katharine, (eds.) Climate risk in Africa: adaptation and resilience. Cham, Switzerland, Palgrave Macmillan, 57-76.

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Abstract/Summary

Managing climate-related risks is clouded in differing levels of uncertainty that are magnified when trying to understand their potential impacts on socio-ecological systems. The ‘cascade of uncertainty’ is particularly apparent in Africa where socio-ecological data are sparse, and the development and validation of impact models are at varying stages. In this context, using heuristics may serve as an effective way for policy makers to incorporate climate change knowledge into decision-making. Previous scholarship has identified the principles of Flexibility, Robustness and Economic low/no regrets in decision-making under uncertainty. In this chapter, we first make the case for adding Equity to these heuristics, where equity involves ensuring that reducing the climate change risk for one cohort of society does not result in its increase for another. Second, we describe how these principles have been applied under two DFID/NERC funded projects: ForPAc and AMMA-2050 through the use of Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis tools.

Item Type: Publication - Book Section
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6_4
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISBN: 9783030611590
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: climate change, heuristics, uncertainty, equity, decision-making
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live: 01 Mar 2021 11:18 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529765

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