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Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Clairbaux, Manon; Cheung, William W.L.; Mathewson, Paul; Porter, Warren; Courbin, Nicolas; Fort, Jérôme; Strøm, Hallvard; Moe, Børge; Fauchald, Per; Descamps, Sebastien; Helgason, Hálfdán; Bråthen, Vegard S.; Merkel, Benjamin; Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho; Bringsvor, Ingar S.; Chastel, Olivier; Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe; Danielsen, Jóhannis; Daunt, Francis; Dehnhard, Nina; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Ezhov, Alexeï; Gavrilo, Maria; Krasnov, Yuri; Langset, Magdalene; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Newell, Mark; Olsen, Bergur; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Systad, Geir; Þórarinsson, Þorkell L.; Baran, Mark; Diamond, Tony; Fayet, Annette L.; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G.; Frederiksen, Morten; Gilchrist, Grant H.; Guilford, Tim; Huffeldt, Nicholas P.; Jessopp, Mark; Johansen, Kasper L.; Kouwenberg, Amy L.; Linnebjerg, Jannie F.; McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura; Mallory, Mark; Merkel, Flemming R.; Montevecchi, William; Mosbech, Anders; Petersen, Aevar; Grémillet, David. 2021 Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology, 27 (7). 1457-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

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Abstract/Summary

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine‐protected areas in a changing ocean.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN: 1354-1013
Additional Keywords: DBEM, energy requirement, mechanistic habitat selection, NicheMapper, Paris agreement, RCP scenarios, seabird migration, seabird distributions
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 29 Dec 2020 21:43 +0 (UTC)
URI: https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305

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