Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Maberly, Stephen C. ORCID:; O’Donnell, Ruth A.; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Cutler, Mark E.J.; Gong, Mengyi ORCID:; Jones, Ian D. ORCID:; Merchant, Christopher J.; Miller, Claire A.; Politi, Eirini; Scott, E. Marian; Thackeray, Stephen J. ORCID:; Tyler, Andrew N.. 2020 Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change. Nature Communications, 11, 1232. 9, pp.

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
N527175JA.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (2MB) | Preview


Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN: 2041-1723
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: limnology, projection and prediction
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 06 Mar 2020 11:41 +0 (UTC)

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...