PopFor: a new model for estimating poplar yields

Henner, Dagmar N.; Hastings, Astley; Pogson, Mark; McNamara, Niall P.; Davies, Christian A.; Smith, Pete. 2020 PopFor: a new model for estimating poplar yields. Biomass and Bioenergy, 134, 105470. 15, pp.

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Lignocellulosic bioenergy crops are a potential option for climate mitigation and for meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement in Europe. The PopFor process-based model has been developed based on the earlier MiscanFor model and parameterised for poplar using data from a literature review in combination with experimental data on high performing clones Max 1, 3, 4 for extensively and intensively managed sites in Germany. PopFor needs comparatively few input data to provide accurate estimates of biomass yield. The parameters found allowed a good match to measured values. The best fit for bud emergence is 81 °days (base 5), with leaf emergence at 463 °days (base 5) and the temperature at which photosynthesis slows is 28 °C. Maximum radiation use efficiency was set to 2.9 gMJ−1. The air temperature threshold that kills crop was set at −37 °C with the number of days below this threshold that kills the crop set at 90 days. 30 days below wiltpoint was set as a threshold that kills the crop from drought. It was found that plant available water was the key explanatory variable in predicting yield and access to groundwater explained 97% of the yield variation between the sites. The results show that the model estimates the yield of poplar after the establishment phase with a mean difference of 0.27 DM t ha−1 y−1 (r2 0.99, n29, F = 4.18, p < 0.05 with RMSE = 19.68%). PopFor was shown to be an effective model for predicting yields under different soil conditions.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN: 0961-9534
Additional Keywords: PopFor, poplar, bioenergy crop, process-based model, yield, parameterisation
NORA Subject Terms: Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 04 Mar 2020 11:22 +0 (UTC)

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