Uncertainties in long-term twenty-first century process-based coastal sea-level projections

van de Wal, R. S. W.; Zhang, X.; Minobe, S.; Jevrejeva, S. ORCID:; Riva, R. E. M.; Little, C.; Richter, K.; Palmer, M. D.. 2019 Uncertainties in long-term twenty-first century process-based coastal sea-level projections. Surveys in Geophysics, 40 (6). 1655-1671.

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Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
ISSN: 0169-3298
Date made live: 02 Mar 2020 13:16 +0 (UTC)

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