Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes

Turner, Fiona; Wilkinson, Richard; Buck, Caitlin; Jones, Julie; Sime, Louise

Turner, Fiona; Wilkinson, Richard; Buck, Caitlin; Jones, Julie; Sime, Louise ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9093-7926. 2019 Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes. In: Bayesian Statistics and New Generations. Springer, 175-182, 8pp. (International Conference on Bayesian Statistics in Action).

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Abstract

Creating more accurate reconstructions of past Antarctic ice sheet shapes allows us to better predict how they will vary in the changing climate and contribute to future sea level changes. In this research, we use expert elicitation to create a subjective prior distribution of the Antarctic ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21Ka. A design of shapes from this distribution will be run through the global climate model HadCM3, providing us with output that we can compare with proxy data to find a better estimate of the ice sheet shape at the LGM.

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Programmes:

BAS Programmes 2015 > Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate

Official URL:

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-...

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1007/978-3-030-30611-3_18

Additional Keywords:

Antarctic ice sheets, expert elicitation, principal component analysis, subjective Bayesian methods

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