Evaluation and Comparison of Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts

Williamson, John; Clarke, Ellen; Reay, Sarah; Richardson, Gemma. 2018 Evaluation and Comparison of Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts. [Poster] In: European Space Weather Week 15, Leuven, Belguim, 5th - 9th November 2018. Edinburgh, UK, British Geological Survey. (Unpublished)

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Geomagnetic activity forecasts of various types are provided by the British Geological Survey (BGS), these include categorical, human-derived forecasts of up to three days ahead as well as computer-derived time-series predictions of global and local daily (Ap and DRX) and global 3-hourly (ap) indices. Users of these include institutes acting on behalf of government, space agencies concerned with thermospheric models of satellite drag, power companies interested in warning of possible geomagnetically induced currents, oil and gas companies involved in directional drilling and aurora borealis enthusiasts. This work builds on previous derivation of the equitable skill score metrics, which were used to evaluate the BGS categorical forecasts from the 1990s to 2013 (Clarke & Thomson, 2013). From 2014 a change to the forecast categories was made and predictions of a global maximum level as well as the global average, were included. Evaluation of the forecasts following this change has been carried out and the results are presented here. Forecast accuracies, using appropriate metrics in each case, are evaluated and comparisons are presented between the various prediction methods – forecasting team and computer algorithms, as well as over time and against standard benchmarks. Reference: E. Clarke and A. W. P. Thomson, Forecast Evaluation as Applied to Geomagnetic Activity Categories, ESWW10 Oral Presentation, 2013.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Poster)
NORA Subject Terms: Earth Sciences
Space Sciences
Data and Information
Date made live: 09 Nov 2018 09:02 +0 (UTC)

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