Navigating cascades of uncertainty — as easy as ABC? Not quite…

Smith, K.A. ORCID:; Wilby, R.L.; Broderick, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Matthews, T.; Harrigan, S.; Murphy, C.. 2018 Navigating cascades of uncertainty — as easy as ABC? Not quite…. Journal of Extreme Events, 5 (1), 1850007. 8, pp.

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The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
UKCEH Fellows
ISSN: 2345-7376
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords: model, uncertainty, decision-making, risk management, climate impacts, ensemble.
NORA Subject Terms: Hydrology
Date made live: 06 Aug 2018 10:12 +0 (UTC)

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