Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach

Levy, Peter; Van Oijen, Marcel; Buys, Gwen; Tomlinson, Sam. 2018 Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. Biogeosciences, 15 (5). 1497-1513.

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We present a method for estimating land-use change using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. The approach provides a general framework for combining multiple disparate data sources with a simple model. This allows us to constrain estimates of gross land-use change with reliable national-scale census data, whilst retaining the detailed information available from several other sources. Eight different data sources, with three different data structures, were combined in our posterior estimate of land use and land-use change, and other data sources could easily be added in future. The tendency for observations to underestimate gross land-use change is accounted for by allowing for a skewed distribution in the likelihood function. The data structure produced has high temporal and spatial resolution, and is appropriate for dynamic process-based modelling. Uncertainty is propagated appropriately into the output, so we have a full posterior distribution of output and parameters. The data are available in the widely used netCDF file format from

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN: 1726-4170
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms: Earth Sciences
Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 06 Apr 2018 12:44 +0 (UTC)

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