Millennial to annual volume changes in the Humber Estuary

Analysis of stratigraphic records and historic charts has allowed comparison of Holocene
and historical rates of accommodation space change in the Humber Basin. Apparent rate
differences are explained using a morphological model and an analytical approach to
separate out the effect of differing forcing signals. This understanding is then used to
construct a simple behavioural model of how estuary volumes change over time that is
consistent over millennial to annual time-scales. Given the desire to promote the
sustainable management of estuaries, the approach provides a means to identify the
natural variability that should be anticipated. Distinguishing such signals from
influences such as sea-level rise is also important for the proper attribution of impacts
due to climate change.