Modelling the impact of higher temperature on the phytoplankton of a boreal lake

Pätynen, Anita; Elliott, J. Alex; Kiuru, Petri; Sarvala, Jouko; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Jones, Roger I.. 2014 Modelling the impact of higher temperature on the phytoplankton of a boreal lake. Boreal Environment Research, 19 (1). 66-78.

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We linked the models PROTECH and MyLake to test potential impacts of climate-change-induced warming on the phytoplankton community of Pyhäjärvi, a lake in southwest Finland. First, we calibrated the models for the present conditions, which revealed an apparent high significance of internal nutrient loading for Pyhäjärvi. We then estimated the effect of two climate change scenarios on lake water temperatures and ice cover duration with MyLake. Finally, we used those outputs to drive PROTECH to predict the resultant phytoplankton community. It was evident that cyanobacteria will grow significantly better in warmer water, especially in the summer. Even if phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the lake remain the same and there is little change in the total chlorophyll a concentrations, a higher proportion of the phytoplankton community could be dominated by cyanobacteria. The model outputs provided no clear evidence that earlier ice break would advance the timing of the diatom spring bloom.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.4 - Develop novel and improved methods to enable the sustainable management of freshwaters and wetlands
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Parr
ISSN: 1239-6095
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Open Access paper - Official URL link provides full text
NORA Subject Terms: Biology and Microbiology
Ecology and Environment
Date made live: 24 Mar 2014 11:21 +0 (UTC)

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