Initialisation, data assimilation and uncertainty for hydrological flood models

Moore, R.J.; Cole, S.J.; Robson, A.J.; Bell, V.A. ORCID: 2009 Initialisation, data assimilation and uncertainty for hydrological flood models. [Keynote] In: Third NERC Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) Science Meeting, University of Plymouth, 10-11 September 2009. (Unpublished)

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Progress will be reported on Work Package 3 of the FREE project “Exploitation of new data sources, data assimilation and ensemble techniques for storm and flood forecasting”. This is investigating the initialisation, data assimilation and uncertainty of hydrological flood models whilst exploiting recent advances in rainfall estimation and forecasting. The hydrological flood model that forms the central focus of the study is the Grid-to-Grid Model or G2G: this is a distributed grid-based model that produces area-wide flood forecasts across the modelled domain. Application of the model will be illustrated using regional case studies - over South West England for the Boscastle storm and over the Midlands for the summer 2007 floods – and for the whole extent of England and Wales demonstrating national coverage on a 1 km grid. Simple and efficient methods to initialise and state-correct the distributed G2G Model in real-time will be outlined. Accounting for uncertainty will be illustrated using ensemble rainfall forecasts from the Met Office’s STEPS nowcasting and high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems. When used as input to the G2G Model, flood exceedance maps can be produced in animated form that allow the evolving flood risk to be visualised in space and time to raise awareness and support flood warning in real-time. These developments are being trialled in the Environment Agency’s National Flood Forecasting System ready for use in the new Flood Forecasting Centre in 2010.

Item Type: Publication - Conference Item (Keynote)
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Boorman (to September 2014)
Harding (to July 2011)
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: This is a Keynote presentation to the NERC FREE Science Meeting and only the Abstract exists.
NORA Subject Terms: Meteorology and Climatology
Earth Sciences
Related URLs:
Date made live: 13 Oct 2010 14:21 +0 (UTC)

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