Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Balcan, Duygi; Colizza, Vittoria; Singer, Andrew C.; Chouaid, Christos; Hu, Hao; Goncalves, Bruno; Bajardi, Paolo; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, Jose J.; Perra, Nicola; Tizzoni, Michele; Paolotti, Daniela; Van den Broeck, Wouter; Valleron, Alainjacques; Vespignani, Alessandro. 2009 Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. PLoS Currents: Influenza (Dec 4 [revised 2), PMC2795396.

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While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to predict the potential demand on critical care to assist planning for the management of resources and plan for additional stockpiling. We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia. Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Programmes: CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Biogeochemistry > BGC Topic 3 - Managing Threats to Environment and Health
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: Hails
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: PLoS Currents: Influenza is a website for immediate, open communication and discussion of new scientific data, analyses, and ideas in a critical research area. Submissions are screened by a group of leading researchers in the field, and those deemed appropriate are posted immediately and publicly archived at the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). All content is open access, available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
NORA Subject Terms: Biology and Microbiology
Ecology and Environment
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Date made live: 28 Jan 2010 12:51 +0 (UTC)

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