Model initialisation, data assimilation and probabilistic flood forecasting for distributed hydrological models

Cole, S.J.; Robson, A.J.; Bell, V.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Moore, R.J.. 2008 Model initialisation, data assimilation and probabilistic flood forecasting for distributed hydrological models. [Poster] In: Second NERC Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) Science Meeting, University of Reading, 12-13 November 2008. (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

Work Package 3 of the FREE project “Exploitation of new data sources, data assimilation and ensemble techniques for storm and flood forecasting” addresses the initialisation, data assimilation and uncertainty of hydrological flood models utilising advances in rainfall estimation and forecasting. Progress will be reported on the development and assessment of simple methods for model-initialisation and state-correction of a distributed grid-based hydrological model, the G2G Model, for area-wide flood forecasting. A demonstration of the G2G Model configured nationwide across England and Wales is presented as a means of realising the “source-to-sea” modelling objective of the FREE Programme. Progress on Probabilistic Flood Forecasting is illustrated through the use of high-resolution NWP rainfalls, and pseudo-ensemble forms of these, as input to the G2G Model configured over South West England and using the Boscastle storm as a case study. Visualisation of probabilistic flood forecasts is achieved through risk maps of flood threshold exceedence indicating the space-time evolution of flood risk over the event.

Item Type:	Publication - Conference Item (Poster)
Programmes:	CEH Topics & Objectives 2009 - 2012 > Water > WA Topic 3 - Science for Water Management > WA - 3.1 - Develop next generation methods for river flow frequency estimation and forecasting
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Boorman (to September 2014) Harding (to July 2011)
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Also published in Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol 11, EGU2009-8048-3, 2009
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Hydrology Earth Sciences
Related URLs:	Project Website
Date made live:	03 Aug 2009 12:06 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/7624

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