Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets

Palomo, Ignacio; González-García, Alberto; Ferraro, Paul J.; Muradian, Rodan; Pascual, Unai; Arboledas, Manuel; Bullock, James M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0529-4020; Bruley, Enora; Gómez-Baggethun, Erik; Lavorel, Sandra. 2024 Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets. Ambio. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6

Abstract/Summary

To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly “bend the curve” have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0044-7447
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	biodiversity, deforestation, environmental targets, Glasgow declaration, Kunming Montreal global biodiversity framework, restoration
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	19 Nov 2024 11:01 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538399

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

0044-7447

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

biodiversity, deforestation, environmental targets, Glasgow declaration, Kunming Montreal global biodiversity framework, restoration