Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Burton, Chantelle; Lampe, Seppe; Kelley, Douglas I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969; Thiery, Wim; Hantson, Stijn; Christidis, Nikos; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Forrest, Matthew; Burke, Eleanor; Chang, Jinfeng; Huang, Huilin; Ito, Akihiko; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Wei; Nieradzik, Lars; Li, Fang; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Mengel, Matthias. 2024 Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. Nature Climate Change, 14. 1186-1192. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Abstract/Summary

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1758-678X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Full text available via Related URLs 'Publisher' link.
Additional Keywords:	attribution, climate and earth system modelling, climate-change impacts
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Publisher Dataset Dataset Dataset Other
Date made live:	04 Nov 2024 14:45 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538321

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

1758-678X

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Full text available via Related URLs 'Publisher' link.

Additional Keywords:

attribution, climate and earth system modelling, climate-change impacts