Wind shear effects in convection–permitting models influence MCS rainfall and forcing of tropical circulation

Maybee, Ben; Marsham, John H.; Klein, Cornelia M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6686-0458; Parker, Douglas J.; Barton, Emma J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5945-9244; Taylor, Christopher M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0120-3198; Lewis, Huw; Sanchez, Claudio; Jones, Richard W.; Warner, James. 2024 Wind shear effects in convection–permitting models influence MCS rainfall and forcing of tropical circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (17), e2024GL110119. 10, pp. 10.1029/2024GL110119

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Abstract/Summary

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) play a critical role in tropical rainfall patterns and circulations. To reduce persistent biases and improve understanding of the climate system, international groups have called for unprecedented investment in global convection–permitting (CP) climate models. It is essential such models accurately represent MCSs, and in particular environmental interactions such as dynamical control by wind shear. We show that in representative current generation CP simulations, MCS updraft entrainment decreases with shear, leading to a realistic increase of extreme rainfall. We find the control of environmental shear extends to mean storm rainfall and anvil heights. The simulation of these effects depends strongly on model physics in both CP and parameterized models. We show that in West Africa, MCS shear response influences the zonal distribution of storm diabatic heating, modifying upscale impacts of convection. Our results demonstrate key tests for focused process–based assessment of CP model fidelity.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2024GL110119
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0094-8276
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Other
Date made live:	09 Sep 2024 13:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537984

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