A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India

Chanda, Mohammed Mudassar; Campbell, Lindsay; Walke, Henry; Salzer, Johanna S.; Hemadri, Divakar; Patil, Sharanagouda S.; Purse, Bethan V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-2710; Shivachandra, Sathish Bhadravati. 2024 A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India. Scientific Reports, 14, 19928. 14, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-67736-w

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Abstract/Summary

Anthrax is an economically important zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans. The disease is caused by a spore forming bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, and is considered endemic to the state of Karnataka, India. It is critical to quantify the role of climatic factors in determining the temporal pattern of anthrax outbreaks, so that reliable forecasting models can be developed. These models will aid in establishing public health surveillance and guide strategic vaccination programs, which will reduce the economic loss to farmers, and prevent the spill-over of anthrax from livestock to humans. In this study, correlation and coherence between time series of anthrax outbreaks in livestock (1987–2016) and meteorological variables and Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SST) were identified using a combination of cross-correlation analyses, spectral analyses (wavelets and empirical mode decomposition) and further quantified using a Bayesian time series regression model accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Monthly numbers of anthrax outbreaks were positively associated with a lagged effect of rainfall and wet day frequency. Long-term periodicity in anthrax outbreaks (approximately 6–8 years) was coherent with the periodicity in SST anomalies and outbreak numbers increased with decrease in SST anomalies. These findings will be useful in planning long-term anthrax prevention and control strategies in Karnataka state of India.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-67736-w
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2045-2322
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Health Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	29 Aug 2024 10:54 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537942

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