Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.; Juez, Carmelo; Potopová, Vera; Boincean, Boris; Murphy, Conor; Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando; Eklundh, Lars; Peña‐Angulo, Dhais; Noguera, Iván ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0696-9504; Jin, Hongxiao; Conradt, Tobias; Garcia‐Herrera, Ricardo; Garrido‐Perez, Jose Manuel; Barriopedro, David; Gutiérrez, Jose M.; Iturbide, Maialen; Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge; Kenawy, Ahmed El. 2024 Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1538 (1). 144-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15201

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Abstract/Summary

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15201
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0077-8923
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, crop yields, drought, global warming, Republic of Moldova
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology Agriculture and Soil Science
Date made live:	06 Aug 2024 09:28 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537801

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