Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin

Dembélé, Moctar; Vrac, Mathieu; Ceperley, Natalie; Zwart, Sander J.; Larsen, Josh; Dadson, Simon J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6144-4639; Mariéthoz, Grégoire; Schaefli, Bettina. 2024 Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin. Proceedings of IAHS, 385. 121-127. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024

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Abstract/Summary

Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between +1 % and +80 % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between −19 % and −7 %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between −4 and +3 d, while MAM could shift between −4 and +14 d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2199-899X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	hydroclimatic extremes, modelling, West Africa, PUB, UPH 1, UPH 9, SDG 6.4, SDG 13.1
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Dataset
Date made live:	21 Jun 2024 11:29 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537612

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