Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems

Aramendia, Emmanuel; Brockway, Paul E.; Taylor, Peter G.; Norman, Jonathan B.; Heun, Matthew K.; Marshall, Zeke ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9260-7827. 2024 Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems. Nature Energy. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6

Abstract/Summary

The net energy implications of the energy transition have so far been analysed at best at the final energy stage. Here we argue that expanding the analysis to the useful stage is crucial. We estimate fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage energy returns on investment (EROIs) over the period 1971–2020, globally and nationally, and disaggregate EROIs by end use. We find that fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage EROIs (~3.5:1) are considerably lower than at the final stage (~8.5:1), due to low final-to-useful efficiencies. Further, we estimate the final-stage EROI for which electricity-yielding renewable energy would deliver the same net useful energy as fossil fuels (EROI equivalent) to be approximately 4.6:1. The EROIs of electricity-yielding renewable energy systems, based on published estimations, are found to be higher than the determined EROI equivalent, even considering the effects of intermittency under a range of energy transition scenarios. Results suggest that the energy transition may happen without a decline in net useful energy, countering the view that renewable energy systems cannot replace fossil fuels without incurring a substantial energy penalty.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2058-7546
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	energy harvesting, renewable energy
NORA Subject Terms:	Earth Sciences Ecology and Environment Data and Information
Related URLs:	Dataset Dataset Dataset Other
Date made live:	30 May 2024 13:48 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537501

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2058-7546

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

energy harvesting, renewable energy