Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-72: Application of the FABLE Calculator to model pathways to sustainable land use in Wales

Smith, A,; Leach, N.J.; Jones, S.; Harrison, P.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338. 2022 Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-72: Application of the FABLE Calculator to model pathways to sustainable land use in Wales. Bangor, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 27pp. (UKCEH Project no. C06297, C210/2016/2017)

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Abstract/Summary

This report summarises the application of the FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land use and Energy) Calculator to model sustainable food and land use systems in Wales. FABLE is an international model designed to simulate national level food and land use systems, which has previously been applied to the UK. For this study, we worked in partnership with Welsh Government to develop a version of the calculator specifically for Wales. We developed four different scenarios representing: (i) continuation of the current situation (Status Quo), (ii) slight improvements in line with current policy (Improvements on Current Trends), and two potential pathways to sustainability (iii) Land Sparing, based on ‘sustainable intensification and release of land for nature and carbon sequestration’ in line with the Climate Change Committee scenarios, and (iv) Land Sharing, using land management techniques which deliver biodiversity restoration, carbon sequestration and production simultaneously on the same land, which was more tailored to the specific land use context (large areas of rough upland grazing) and aligned with current Welsh legislation. Both the Land Sparing and Land Sharing scenarios included an assumption of dietary change towards the Eatwell healthy diet (a more plant-based diet), as well as reductions in food waste, improvements in agricultural productivity and increased tree planting. However, while the Land Sparing scenario assumed that production would be intensified, with a shift away from extensive grazing towards greater use of improved (fertilised, re-sown) pasture, the Land Sharing scenario assumed a shift to more low-intensity extensive grazing on species-rich semi-natural grassland. We tested the scenarios to identify pathways to sustainable land use and food systems that could deliver across multiple policy goals for greenhouse gas reduction, biodiversity conservation and healthy diets. The results indicate that maintaining the status quo or implementing only slight improvements to current policy will not be sufficient to enable Wales to reach net-zero GHG emissions (which requires the land use sector to be a carbon sink). However, both the Land Sparing and Land Sharing scenarios were predicted to enable the land use sector to become a net carbon sink, helping to offset emissions in other sectors. Both of these scenarios freed up land for biodiversity conservation; this was mainly semi-natural species-rich extensive grassland in the Land Sharing scenario and mainly ‘Other natural land’ (heath and bog) in the Land Sparing scenario. However, under the policy assumption that only 20% of new forest would be managed for biodiversity, none of the scenarios achieved the goal of creating an extra half million hectares of land for biodiversity conservation. The analysis showed that in order to achieve this goal it would be necessary to stipulate that 86% of all new forest should be planned and managed to deliver benefits for biodiversity, i.e. it should use a diverse mix of native species (and/or natural regeneration) and be sensitively managed to maintain good ground cover and a shrub understorey layer. Planting with a mix of native broadleaved species is also estimated to deliver more carbon sequestration over the first 30 years from 2020 to 2050 compared to a regularly thinned conifer plantation.

Item Type:	Publication - Report (Project Report)
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
Funders/Sponsors:	Welsh Government
Additional Keywords:	ERAMMP
Related URLs:	Project Website
Date made live:	09 Nov 2023 14:17 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/535992

Item Type:

Publication - Report (Project Report)

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

Funders/Sponsors:

Welsh Government

Additional Keywords:

ERAMMP

Related URLs: