Quantifying the impacts of predation by great black-backed gulls Larus marinus on an Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica population: implications for conservation management and impact assessments

Langlois Lopez, Samuel; Daunt, Francis ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4638-3388; Wilson, Jared; O'Hanlon, Nina J.; Searle, Kate R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4624-9023; Bennett, Sophie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7351-5051; Newell, Mark A.; Harris, Michael P.; Masden, Elizabeth. 2023 Quantifying the impacts of predation by great black-backed gulls Larus marinus on an Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica population: implications for conservation management and impact assessments. Marine Environmental Research, 188, 105994. 11, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105994

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105994

Abstract/Summary

The management of predator-prey conflicts can be a key aspect of species conservation. For management approaches to be effective, a robust understanding of the predator-prey relationship is needed, particularly when both predator and prey are species of conservation concern. On the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland, numbers of breeding Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, a generalist predator, have been increasing since the 1980s, which has led to increasing numbers of sympatrically breeding Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica being predated during the breeding season. This may have consequences for species management on the Isle of May and impact assessments of offshore windfarms in the wider Firth of Forth area. We used population viability analysis to quantify under what predation pressure the Atlantic Puffin population may decline and become locally extinct over a three-generation period. The predation level empirically estimated in 2017 (1120 Puffins per year) was not sufficient to drive a decline in the Puffin population. Rather, an increase to approximately 3000 Puffins per year would be required to cause a population decline, and >4000 to drive the population to quasi-extinction within 66 years. We discuss the likelihood of such a scenario being reached on the Isle of May, and we recommend that where predator-prey conflicts occur, predation-driven mortality should be regularly quantified to inform conservation management and population viability analyses associated with impact assessments.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105994
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-) UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	0141-1136
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	population viability analysis, conservation, wildlife conflicts, predator-prey relationships, population modelling, seabirds, population dynamics
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	06 Nov 2023 16:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/535577

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105994

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
UKCEH Fellows

ISSN:

0141-1136

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

population viability analysis, conservation, wildlife conflicts, predator-prey relationships, population modelling, seabirds, population dynamics