Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya

Kiptum, Augustine; Mwangi, Emmah; Otieno, George; Njogu, Andrew; Kilavi, Mary; Mwai, Zacharia; MacLeod, Dave; Neal, Jeff; Hawker, Laurence; O'Shea, Tom; Saado, Halima; Visman, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5215-1818; Majani, Bernard; Todd, Martin C.. 2023 Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya. Journal of Flood Risk Management, e12884. 26, pp. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12884

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Abstract/Summary

Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12884
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1753-318X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	early warning, flood, forecast-based action, forecasting, impact based forecasting, inundation, Kenya
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Related URLs:	Dataset
Date made live:	06 Nov 2023 16:20 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/535530

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