A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

Mosnier, Aline; Javalera-Rincon, Valeria; Jones, Sarah K.; Andrew, Robbie; Bai, Zhaohai; Baker, Justin; Basnet, Shyam; Boer, Rizaldi; Chavarro, John; Costa, Wanderson; Daloz, Anne Sophie; DeClerck, Fabrice A.; Diaz, Maria; Douzal, Clara; Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah; Fetzer, Ingo; Frank, Federico; Gonzalez-Abraham, Charlotte E.; Habiburrachman, A.H.F.; Immanuel, Gito; Harrison, Paula A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338; Imanirareba, Dative; Jha, Chandan; Jin, Xinpeng; Ghosh, Ranjan Kumar; Leach, Nicholas; Lehtonen, Heikki; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Low, Wai Sern; Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo; McCord, Gordon Carlos; Molla, Kiflu Gedefe; Monjeau, Adrian; Navarro-Garcia, Javier; Neubauer, Rudolf; Obersteiner, Michael; Olguín, Marcela; Orduña-Cabrera, Fernando; Pena, Andres; Pérez-Guzmán, Katya; Potashnikov, Vladimir; Rämö, Janne; Ramos, Fernando M.; Rasche, Livia; Gallardo, René Reyes; Schmidt-Traub, Guido; Selomane, Odirilwe; Singh, Vartika; Smith, Alison; Soterroni, Aline C.; Sperling, Frank; Steinhauser, Jan; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Strokov, Anton; Thomson, Marcus; van Oort, Bob; Vittis, Yiorgos; Wade, Chris; Winarni, Nurul L.; Woldeyes, Firew Bekele; Wu, Grace C.; Zerriffi, Hisham. 2023 A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems [in special issue: Managing the global commons: sustainable agriculture and use of the world's land and water resources in the 21st century] Environmental Research Letters, 18 (4), 045001. 13, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

Abstract/Summary

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1748-9326
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	agricultural models, food security, deforestation, climate change mitigation, biodiversity, trade
NORA Subject Terms:	Agriculture and Soil Science Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Dataset Project Website
Date made live:	06 Nov 2023 09:18 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/535457

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

1748-9326

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

agricultural models, food security, deforestation, climate change mitigation, biodiversity, trade