Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre

Gómez‐Valdivia, Felipe ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8203-1163; Holland, Paul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8370-289X; Siahaan, Antony; Dutrieux, Pierre ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8066-934X; Young, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7069-6109. 2023 Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (6), e2023GL102978. 11, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102978

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Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102...

Abstract/Summary

We use United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyze the Ross Gyre (RG) dynamics during the historical 1850–2014 period and under two contrasting future climate-change scenarios. The modeled RG is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that agree with observations. The projections exhibit an eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas that starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the inner regional shelf, a regime change that increases the local subsurface shelf temperatures by up to 1.2°C and is independent of future forcing scenario. The RG expansion is generated by a regional ocean surface stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic sea ice loss. If realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102978
ISSN:	0094-8276
Additional Keywords:	Ross Gyre, West Antartica, Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas, sea ice loss, climate projections, UKESM
Date made live:	21 Mar 2023 16:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534254

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102978

ISSN:

0094-8276

Additional Keywords:

Ross Gyre, West Antartica, Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas, sea ice loss, climate projections, UKESM

Date made live:

21 Mar 2023 16:57 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534254