Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss

Johnson, Thomas F.; Isaac, Nick J.B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4869-8052; Paviolo, Agustin; González-Suárez, Manuela. 2023 Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss. Nature Communications, 14, 74. 11, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35665-9

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35665-9

Abstract/Summary

Land-use and climate change have been linked to changes in wildlife populations, but the role of socioeconomic factors in driving declines, and promoting population recoveries, remains relatively unexplored. Here, we evaluate potential drivers of population changes observed in 50 species of some of the world’s most charismatic and functionally important fauna—large mammalian carnivores. Our results reveal that human socioeconomic development is more associated with carnivore population declines than habitat loss or climate change. Rapid increases in socioeconomic development are linked to sharp population declines, but, importantly, once development slows, carnivore populations have the potential to recover. The context- and threshold-dependent links between human development and wildlife population health are challenges to the achievement of the UN Sustainable development goals.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35665-9
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2041-1723
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	biodiversity, conservation biology, socioeconomic scenarios
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	23 Feb 2023 16:09 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534076

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35665-9

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2041-1723

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

biodiversity, conservation biology, socioeconomic scenarios