Uncertainties in shoreline projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of sea‐level rise and equilibrium model assumptions

D'Anna, M.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Rohmer, J.; Le Cozannet, G.; Thieblemont, R.; Bricheno, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4751-9366. 2021 Uncertainties in shoreline projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach (France): Role of sea‐level rise and equilibrium model assumptions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

Preview

Text
© 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
JGR Earth Surface - 2021 - D Anna - Uncertainties in Shoreline Projections to 2100 at Truc Vert Beach France Role of.pdf
Download (7MB) | Preview

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160

Abstract/Summary

Sandy shorelines morphodynamics responds to a myriad of processes interacting at different spatial and temporal scales, making shoreline predictions challenging. Shoreline modeling inherits uncertainties from the primary driver boundary conditions (e.g., sea-level rise and wave forcing) as well as uncertainties related to model assumptions and/or misspecifications of the physics. This study presents an analysis of the uncertainties associated with future shoreline evolution at the cross-shore transport dominated sandy beach of Truc Vert (France) over the 21st century. We explicitly resolve wave-driven shoreline change using two different equilibrium modeling approaches to provide new insight into the contributions of sea-level rise, and free model parameters uncertainties on future shoreline change in the frame of climate change. Based on a Global Sensitivity Analysis, shoreline response during the first half of the century is found to be mainly sensitive to the equilibrium model parameters, with the influence of sea-level rise emerging in the second half of the century (∼2050 or later), under several simulated scenarios. The results reveal that the seasonal and interannual variability of the predicted shoreline position is sensitive to the choice of the wave-driven equilibrium-based model. Finally, we discuss the importance of the chronology of wave events in future shoreline change, calling for more continuous wave projection time series to further address uncertainties in future wave conditions. Our contribution demonstrates that unmitigated climate change can result in shoreline retreat of several tens of meters by 2100, even for sectors that have been stable or slightly accreting over the last century.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160
ISSN:	2169-9003
Date made live:	23 Feb 2023 12:02 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534064

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006160

ISSN:

2169-9003

Date made live:

23 Feb 2023 12:02 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534064