Reduced-form and complex ACTM modelling for air quality policy development: a model inter-comparison

Oxley, Tim; Vieno, Massimo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7741-9377; Woodward, Huw; ApSimon, Helen; Mehlig, Daniel; Beck, Rachel; Nemitz, Eiko ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1765-6298; Reis, Stefan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2428-8320. 2023 Reduced-form and complex ACTM modelling for air quality policy development: a model inter-comparison. Environment International, 171, 107676. 13, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2022.107676

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2022.107676

Abstract/Summary

Simulation models can be valuable tools in supporting development of air pollution policy. However, exploration of future scenarios depends on reliable and robust modelling to provide confidence in outcomes which cannot be tested against measurements. Here we focus on the UK Integrated Assessment Model, a fast reduced-form model with a purpose to support policy development with modelling of multiple alternative future scenarios, and the EMEP4UK model which is a complex Eulerian Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model requiring significant computing resources. The EMEP4UK model has been used to model selected core scenarios to compare with UKIAM, and to investigate sensitivity studies such as the interannual variability in response to meteorological differences between years. This model intercomparison addresses total PM2.5, primary PM2.5 and Secondary Inorganic Aerosol concentrations for a baseline of 2018 and selected scenarios for projections to 2040. This work has confirmed the robustness of the UK Integrated Assessment Model for assessing alternative futures through a direct comparison with EMEP4UK. Both models have shown good agreement with measurements, and EMEP4UK shows an ability to replicate past trends. These comparisons highlight how a combination of reduced-form modelling (UKIAM) and complex chemical transport modelling (EMEP4UK) can be effectively used in support of air pollution policy development, informing understanding of projected futures in the context of emerging evidence and uncertainties.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2022.107676
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0160-4120
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	UK Integrated Assessment Model, EMEP4UK, PM2.5, model intercomparison
NORA Subject Terms:	Health Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live:	16 Dec 2022 11:29 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533698

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2022.107676

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

0160-4120

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

UK Integrated Assessment Model, EMEP4UK, PM2.5, model intercomparison