Ocean heat uptake efficiency increase since 1970

Cael, B.B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1317-5718. 2022 Ocean heat uptake efficiency increase since 1970. Ocean heat uptake efficiency increase since 1970. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100215

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100215

Abstract/Summary

The ocean stores the bulk of anthropogenic heat in the Earth system. The ocean heat uptake efficiency (OHUE) -- the flux of heat into the ocean per degree of global warming -- is therefore a key factor in how much warming will occur in the coming decades. In climate models, OHUE is well-characterised, tending to decrease on centennial timescales; in contrast, OHUE is not well-constrained from Earth observations. Here OHUE and its rate of change are diagnosed from global temperature and ocean heat content records. OHUE increased over the past five decades by 0.19$\pm$0.04 W/m$^2$K, and was on average 0.58$\pm$0.08 W/m$^2$K during this period. This increase is attributed to steepening anthropogenic heat gradients in the ocean, and corresponds to several years' difference in when temperature targets such as 1.5$^\circ$C or 2$^\circ$C are exceeded.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100215
Date made live:	28 Sep 2022 11:26 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533292

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100215

Date made live:

28 Sep 2022 11:26 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533292