How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa?

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8972-953X; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Davies, Helen N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7783-4853; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756. 2021 How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa? Climatic Change, 169 (3-4), 21. 27, pp. 10.1007/s10584-021-03256-0

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Abstract/Summary

West Africa and its semi-arid Sahelian region are one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change with a history of extreme climate variability. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how projected climate change will affect precipitation at local and regional scales and the consequent impact on river flows and water resources across West Africa. Here, we aim to address this uncertainty by configuring a regional-scale hydrological model to West Africa. The model (hydrological modelling framework for West Africa—HMF-WA) simulates spatially consistent river flows on a 0.1° × 0.1° grid (approximately 10 km × 10 km) continuously across the whole domain and includes estimates of anthropogenic water use, wetland inundation, and local hydrological features such as endorheic regions. Regional-scale hydrological simulations driven by observed weather data are assessed against observed flows before undertaking an analysis of the impact of projected future climate scenarios from the CMIP5 on river flows up to the end of the twenty-first century. The results indicate that projected future changes in river flows are highly spatially variable across West Africa, particularly across the Sahelian region where the predicted changes are more pronounced. The study shows that median peak flows are projected to decrease by 23% in the west (e.g. Senegal) and increase by 80% in the eastern region (e.g. Chad) by the 2050s. The projected reductions in river flows in western Sahel lead to future droughts and water shortages more likely, while in the eastern Sahel, projected increases lead to future frequent floods.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1007/s10584-021-03256-0
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0165-0009
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, CMIP5, hydrological modelling, river flow, Sahel, West Africa
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	28 Jan 2022 16:31 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531853

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