Strong direct and indirect influences of climate change on water yield confirmed by the Budyko framework

Yang, Hui; Xu, Hao; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong. 2021 Strong direct and indirect influences of climate change on water yield confirmed by the Budyko framework. Geography and Sustainability, 2 (4). 281-287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.11.001

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Abstract/Summary

Research findings concerning the main processes influencing water resources differ substantially, and so the topic remains controversial. Recent studies indicate that the changes in water yield, expressed through the n-parameter of Budyko framework, are associated with vegetation coverage changes. Here, we use runoff measurements and outputs from 13 dynamic global vegetation models, to investigate the underlying drivers of the n-parameter changes. Unlike previous studies, we instead find that climate change is the primary driver of adjustments on water resources. Changing climatic characteristics, particularly the intensity and seasonality of rainfall, modulates the runoff generation process. Indirect effects of climate change occur through altering vegetation properties, which in turn also impact river flow. We also find that in the arid and sparse vegetation regions, water yield is more sensitive to changes in n-parameter. Thus, the Budyko framework provides a reliable parameter-sparse representation of runoff changes, and reveals that terrestrial water cycle is changing substantially under climate change. This climate forcing requires on-going investigation to generate more refined and reliable projections of future water availability.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.11.001
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2666-6839
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link
Additional Keywords:	water cycle, climate change, atmospheric CO2, land cover change, runoff
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	29 Dec 2021 15:13 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531646

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