Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Hirons, Linda; Thompson, Elisabeth; Dione, Cheikh; Indasi, Victor S.; Kilavi, Mary; Nkiaka, Elias; Talib, Joshua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4183-1973; Visman, Emma; Adefisan, Elijah A.; de Andrade, Felipe; Ashong, Jesse; Mwesigwa, Jasper Batureine; Boult, Victoria L.; Diedhiou, Tidiane; Konte, Oumar; Gudoshava, Masilin; Kiptum, Chris; Amoah, Richmond Konadu; Lamptey, Benjamin; Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun; Muita, Richard; Nzekwu, Richard; Nying'uro, Patricia; Ochieng, Willis; Olaniyan, Eniola; Opoku, Nana Kofi; Endris, Hussen Seid; Segele, Zewdu; Igri, Pascal Moudi; Mwangi, Emmah; Woolnough, Steve. 2021 Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services, 23, 100246. 13, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246

Abstract/Summary

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2405-8807
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	co-production, sub-seasonal forecasting, operational forecasting testbed, actionbased forecasting, user-driven forecasting for Africa
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	06 Sep 2021 16:39 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531003

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100246

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2405-8807

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

co-production, sub-seasonal forecasting, operational forecasting testbed, actionbased forecasting, user-driven forecasting for Africa