Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

O’Neill, Brian C.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie; Harrison, Paula A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338; Kemp-Benedict, Eric; Kok, Kasper; Kriegler, Elmar; Preston, Benjamin L.; Riahi, Keywan; Sillmann, Jana; van Ruijven, Bas J.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Carlisle, David; Conde, Cecilia; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Green, Carole; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Leininger, Julia; Monteith, Seth; Pichs-Madruga, Ramon. 2020 Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change, 10 (12). 1074-1084. 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

Abstract/Summary

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1758-678X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Publisher link (see Related URLs) provides a read-only full-text copy of the published paper.
Additional Keywords:	climate-change impacts, climate-change mitigation, projection and prediction, socioeconomic scenarios, sustainability
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Related URLs:	Publisher
Date made live:	11 Dec 2020 21:32 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529146

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

1758-678X

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Publisher link (see Related URLs) provides a read-only full-text copy of the published paper.

Additional Keywords:

climate-change impacts, climate-change mitigation, projection and prediction, socioeconomic scenarios, sustainability