Climate change impacts on peak river flows: combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections

Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Rudd, A.C.; Fry, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1142-4039; Nash, G.; Allen, S.. 2021 Climate change impacts on peak river flows: combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections. Climate Risk Management, 31, 100263. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263

Abstract/Summary

Potential future increases in flooding due to climate change need to be taken into consideration when designing flood defences or planning new infrastructure or housing developments. Existing guidance on climate change allowances in Great Britain was based on research that developed a sensitivity-based approach to estimating the impacts of climate change on flood peaks, which was applied with catchment-based hydrological models. Here, the sensitivity-based approach is applied with a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, producing modelled flood response surfaces for every river cell on a 1km grid. This provides a nationally consistent assessment of the sensitivity of flood peaks across Britain to climatic changes. The flood response surfaces are then combined with the most recent climate change projections, UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), to provide location-specific information on the potential range of impacts on floods across the country, for three flood return periods, three future time-slices and four emissions scenarios. An accompanying web-tool provides a convenient way to explore the large amount of data produced. Consideration is now being given to how to use the latest work to update guidance on climate change and flood peaks, including a workshop held to gather stakeholder views.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-) Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2212-0963
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, flooding, hydrological modelling, probabilistic projections, UKCP18
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	11 Dec 2020 20:57 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529117

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2212-0963

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

climate change, flooding, hydrological modelling, probabilistic projections, UKCP18