CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming

Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Williamson, Mark S.; Nijsse, Femke J.M.M.. 2020 CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming. Climatic Change, 162 (3). 1515-1520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5

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Abstract/Summary

Current climate change is highly transient, and Earth is at a significant distance from thermal equilibrium. This well-established finding is predominantly due to the large flux of thermal energy currently entering the oceans. If globally the sources and sinks of atmospheric GHGs were to become zero, this is identical to stating that their concentrations are subsequently invariant. Such a policy would correspond to a full offset of the remaining emissions by both land and ocean CO2 drawdown, as well as any implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods. The 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report defines this as a “constant composition commitment”

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0165-0009
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	30 Oct 2020 16:58 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528813

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