Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices
Afzal, M.; Ragab, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2887-7616. 2020 Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices. Applied Water Science, 10 (10), 215. 19, pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-020-01293-1
Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
|
Text
N528482JA.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (5MB) | Preview |
Abstract/Summary
In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit. The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate.
Item Type: | Publication - Article |
---|---|
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-020-01293-1 |
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas: | UKCEH Fellows Unaffiliated |
ISSN: | 2190-5487 |
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: | Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link. |
Additional Keywords: | climate change, DiCaSM model, drought indices, Eden catchment, hydrological modelling |
NORA Subject Terms: | Hydrology |
Date made live: | 15 Sep 2020 13:18 +0 (UTC) |
URI: | https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528482 |
Actions (login required)
View Item |
Document Downloads
Downloads for past 30 days
Downloads per month over past year