nerc.ac.uk

Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change

Naughten, Kaitlin A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9475-9162; De Rydt, Jan; Rosier, Sebastian H.R.; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8370-289X; Ridley, Jeff K.. 2021 Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change. Nature Communications, 12, 1991. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.
[img]
Preview
Text (Open Access)
© The Author(s) 2021.
s41467-021-22259-0.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (2MB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0
ISSN: 2041-1723
Date made live: 01 Apr 2021 07:54 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Document Downloads

Downloads for past 30 days

Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...