Understanding future water challenges in a highly regulated Indian river basin — modelling the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Narmada

Rickards, Nathan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7303-6739; Thomas, Thomas; Kaelin, Alexandra; Houghton-Carr, Helen; Jain, Sharad K.; Mishra, Prabhash K.; Nema, Manish K.; Dixon, Harry ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1643-1046; Rahman, Mohammed M.; Horan, Robyn; Jenkins, Alan; Rees, Gwyn ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3300-0472. 2020 Understanding future water challenges in a highly regulated Indian river basin — modelling the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Narmada. Water, 12 (6), 1762. 19, pp. 10.3390/w12061762

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Abstract/Summary

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.3390/w12061762
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-) Directors, SCs
ISSN:	2073-4441
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	Narmada, hydrological modelling, climate change, water demand, water resources
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	23 Jun 2020 13:44 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527999

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